@article{7f339b5ba0024f58a58e6ee1dd4fd514,
title = "Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts",
abstract = "The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapaj{\'o}s (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2–7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km2) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.",
keywords = "Amazon, biomass loss, climate change, droughts, ecosystem demography model, forest vulnerability, water and light competition",
author = "Marcos Longo and Knox, {Ryan G.} and Levine, {Naomi M.} and Alves, {Luciana F.} and Damien Bonal and Camargo, {Plinio B.} and Fitzjarrald, {David R.} and Hayek, {Matthew N.} and Natalia Restrepo-Coupe and Saleska, {Scott R.} and {da Silva}, Rodrigo and Stark, {Scott C.} and Tapaj{\'o}s, {Raphael P.} and Wiedemann, {Kenia T.} and Ke Zhang and Wofsy, {Steven C.} and Moorcroft, {Paul R.}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Michael Keller, Robinson Negr{\'o}n-Ju{\'a}rez, the editor and two anonymous reviewers for suggestions that improved the manuscript. M.L. was supported by CNPq (200686/2005-4), NASA/NESSF (NNX08AU95H) and NSF (OISE-0730305, Amazon-PIRE). N.M.L. was supported by a NOAA Climate and Global Change fellowship award. N.M.L., N.R-C., S.R.S., K.Z. and P.R.M. were supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Andes-Amazon Initiative. This work was partially supported by grants NASA/NNX08AP68A and NASA/NNX10AR75G, the CNPq Millennium Institute of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) and FAPESP as part of the BARCA project. The Investissement d'Avenir grants of the French ANR (CEBA: ANR-10-LABX-0025) and the Syst{\`e}me d'Observation et d'Exp{\'e}rimentation sur le long terme pour la Recherche en Environnement {\textquoteleft}For{\^e}t{\textquoteright} funded data acquisition at Paracou. The World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling and all climate modeling groups (Table S3) carried out and shared the CMIP simulations. For CMIP the US Department of Energy's PCMDI and GO-ESSP coordinated and developed software infrastructure. NASA's Science Mission Directorate acquired the TRMM-3B43 data, which are archived and distributed by GES DISC. U. Delaware, GPCC, and PREC-L data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD. Long-term rainfall measurements were provided by INMET and CDO/NOAA. Funding Information: We thank Michael Keller, Robinson Negr{\'o}n-Ju{\'a}rez, the editor and two anonymous reviewers for suggestions that improved the manuscript. M.L. was supported by CNPq (200686/2005-4), NASA/NESSF (NNX08AU95H) and NSF (OISE-0730305, Amazon-PIRE). N.M.L. was supported by a NOAA Climate and Global Change fellowship award. N.M.L., N.R-C., S.R.S., K.Z. and P.R.M. were supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Andes-Amazon Initiative. This work was partially supported by grants NASA/NNX08AP68A and NASA/ NNX10AR75G, the CNPq Millennium Institute of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) and FAPESP as part of the BARCA project. The Investissement d{\textquoteright}Avenir grants of the French ANR (CEBA: ANR-10-LABX-0025) and the Systeme d{\textquoteright}Observation et d{\textquoteright}Experimentation sur le long terme pour la Recherche en Environnement {\textquoteleft}For{\^e}t{\textquoteright} funded data acquisition at Paracou. The World Climate Research Programme{\textquoteright}s Working Group on Coupled Modelling and all climate modeling groups (Table S3) carried out and shared the CMIP simulations. For CMIP the US Department of Energy{\textquoteright}s PCMDI and GO-ESSP coordinated and developed software infrastructure. NASA{\textquoteright}s Science Mission Directorate acquired the TRMM-3B43 data, which are archived and distributed by GES DISC. U. Delaware, GPCC, and PREC-L data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD. Long-term rainfall measurements were provided by INMET and CDO/NOAA. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist {\textcopyright} 2018 New Phytologist Trust",
year = "2018",
month = aug,
doi = "10.1111/nph.15185",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "219",
pages = "914--931",
journal = "New Phytologist",
issn = "0028-646X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "3",
}