Differential Effects of Drought on Arizona State Park Visits: Implications for Visitor Spending and Local Economies

This study examines the influence of drought on monthly visits to Arizona State Parks from 1990-2018, controlling for park attributes and economic factors. Drought effects depend critically on drought length. Long-term drought (measured by 24-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)) discourages visits, while short-term drought (measured by 1-month SPI) encourages visits. The overall effect of drought on visits in a given month depends on the relative strength of these countervailing effects. Studies of drought impacts on outdoor recreation that select too short of a drought time span may fail to adequately capture negative effects. Considering four severe drought years in Arizona (2002, 2003, 2004, and 2018), the combined effects of short-and longer-term drought ranged from a 1% increase to a 4.4% decrease in annual visits. Associated changes in local economic output (sales), including multiplier effects, ranged from gains of $1.2 million to losses of $7.1 million annually. Projections of greater aridification in the U.S. Southwest suggest that the negative effects of longer-term drought may grow more dominant over time. Results also suggest climate warming will shift demand for park visits from summer to winter months and from low desert parks to higher-elevation parks in the north of the state. Future park planning and management may wish to consider the implications of these seasonal and spatial shifts.