Delta Shock Index Predicts Outcomes in Pediatric Trauma Patients Regardless of Age

Samer Asmar, Muhammad Zeeshan, Muhammad Khurrum, Jorge Con, Mohamad Chehab, Letitia Bible, Rifat Latifi, Bellal Joseph

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations


Introduction: Changes in the shock index (ΔSI) can be a predictive tool but is not established among pediatric trauma patients. The aim of our study was to assess the impact of ΔSI on mortality in pediatric trauma patients. Methods: We performed a 2017 analysis of all pediatric trauma patients (age 0-16 y) from the ACS-TQIP. SI was defined as heart rate(HR)/systolic blood pressure(SBP). We abstracted the SI in the field (EMS), SI in the emergency department (ED) and calculated the change in SI (ΔSI = ED SI–EMS SI). Patients were divided into four age groups: 0-3 y, 4-6 y, 7-12 y, and 13-16 y and substratified into two groups based on the value of the age-group-specific ΔSI cutoff obtained with receiver operating characteristic ROC analysis; +ΔSI and –ΔSI. Our outcome measure was mortality. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed. Results: We included 31,490 patients. Mean age was 10.6 ± 4.6 y, and 65.8% were male. The overall mortality rate was 1.4%. In the age group 0-3 y the cutoff point for ΔSI was 0.29 with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.70 [0.62-0.79], ΔSI cutoff 4-6 y was 0.41 AUC 0.81 [0.70-0.92], ΔSI cutoff 7-12 y was 0.05 AUC 0.83 [0.76-0.90], and ΔSI cutoff 13-16 y was 0.13 AUC 0.75 [0.69-0.81]. On the Cox regression analysis, +ΔSI was independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality and 24-h mortality (P ≤ 0.01). Conclusions: Vital signs vary by age group in children, but ΔSI inherently accounts for this variation. ΔSI predicts mortality and may be utilized as a predictor to help guide triage of pediatric trauma patients. Level of Evidence: Level III Prognostic.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)182-191
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Surgical Research
StatePublished - Mar 2021


  • Change in shock index
  • Delta shock index
  • Pediatrics
  • Shock index
  • Trauma
  • Triage

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery


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