Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Scott Power; Matthieu Lengaigne; Antonietta Capotondi; Myriam Khodri; Jérôme Vialard; Beyrem Jebri; Eric Guilyardi; Shayne McGregor; Jong Seong Kug; Matthew Newman; Michael J. McPhaden; Gerald Meehl; Doug Smith; Julia Cole; Julien Emile-Geay; Daniel Vimont; Andrew T. Wittenberg; Mat Collins; Geon Il Kim; Wenju Cai; Yuko Okumura; Christine Chung; Kim M. Cobb; François Delage; Yann Y. Planton; Aaron Levine; Feng Zhu; Janet Sprintall; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Xuebin Zhang; Jing Jia Luo; Xiaopei Lin; Magdalena Balmaseda; Guojian Wang; Benjamin J. Henley

doi:10.1126/science.aay9165

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

Scott Power, Matthieu Lengaigne, Antonietta Capotondi, Myriam Khodri, Jérôme Vialard, Beyrem Jebri, Eric Guilyardi, Shayne McGregor, Jong Seong Kug, Matthew Newman, Michael J. McPhaden, Gerald Meehl, Doug Smith, Julia Cole, Julien Emile-Geay, Daniel Vimont, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Mat Collins, Geon Il Kim, Wenju CaiYuko Okumura, Christine Chung, Kim M. Cobb, François Delage, Yann Y. Planton, Aaron Levine, Feng Zhu, Janet Sprintall, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Xuebin Zhang, Jing Jia Luo, Xiaopei Lin, Magdalena Balmaseda, Guojian Wang, Benjamin J. Henley

Geosciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

134 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	eaay9165
Journal	Science
Volume	374
Issue number	6563
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165
State	Published - Oct 1 2021

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Power, S., Lengaigne, M., Capotondi, A., Khodri, M., Vialard, J., Jebri, B., Guilyardi, E., McGregor, S., Kug, J. S., Newman, M., McPhaden, M. J., Meehl, G., Smith, D., Cole, J., Emile-Geay, J., Vimont, D., Wittenberg, A. T., Collins, M., Kim, G. I., ... Henley, B. J. (2021). Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects. Science, 374(6563), Article eaay9165. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165

Power, S, Lengaigne, M, Capotondi, A, Khodri, M, Vialard, J, Jebri, B, Guilyardi, E, McGregor, S, Kug, JS, Newman, M, McPhaden, MJ, Meehl, G, Smith, D, Cole, J, Emile-Geay, J, Vimont, D, Wittenberg, AT, Collins, M, Kim, GI, Cai, W, Okumura, Y, Chung, C, Cobb, KM, Delage, F, Planton, YY, Levine, A, Zhu, F, Sprintall, J, Di Lorenzo, E, Zhang, X, Luo, JJ, Lin, X, Balmaseda, M, Wang, G & Henley, BJ 2021, 'Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects', Science, vol. 374, no. 6563, eaay9165. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aay9165

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abstract = "Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.",

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AU - Power, Scott

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AU - Vialard, Jérôme

AU - Jebri, Beyrem

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AU - Kug, Jong Seong

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AU - McPhaden, Michael J.

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AU - Smith, Doug

AU - Cole, Julia

AU - Emile-Geay, Julien

AU - Vimont, Daniel

AU - Wittenberg, Andrew T.

AU - Collins, Mat

AU - Kim, Geon Il

AU - Cai, Wenju

AU - Okumura, Yuko

AU - Chung, Christine

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Delage, François

AU - Planton, Yann Y.

AU - Levine, Aaron

AU - Zhu, Feng

AU - Sprintall, Janet

AU - Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

AU - Zhang, Xuebin

AU - Luo, Jing Jia

AU - Lin, Xiaopei

AU - Balmaseda, Magdalena

AU - Wang, Guojian

AU - Henley, Benjamin J.

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AB - Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

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Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects

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