Abstract
Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2688-2705 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |
| Volume | 503 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - May 1 2021 |
Keywords
- Dark energy
- Gravitational lensing: weak
- Large-scale structure of Universe
- Methods: statistical
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Astronomy and Astrophysics
- Space and Planetary Science
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Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions. / DES Collaboration.
In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 503, No. 2, 01.05.2021, p. 2688-2705.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions
AU - DES Collaboration
AU - Doux, C.
AU - Baxter, E.
AU - Lemos, P.
AU - Chang, C.
AU - Alarcon, A.
AU - Amon, A.
AU - Campos, A.
AU - Choi, A.
AU - Gatti, M.
AU - Gruen, D.
AU - Jarvis, M.
AU - MacCrann, N.
AU - Park, Y.
AU - Prat, J.
AU - Rau, M. M.
AU - Raveri, M.
AU - Samuroff, S.
AU - DeRose, J.
AU - Hartley, W. G.
AU - Hoyle, B.
AU - Troxel, M. A.
AU - Zuntz, J.
AU - Abbott, T. M.C.
AU - Aguena, M.
AU - Allam, S.
AU - Annis, J.
AU - Avila, S.
AU - Bacon, D.
AU - Bertin, E.
AU - Bhargava, S.
AU - Brooks, D.
AU - Burke, D. L.
AU - Kind, M. Carrasco
AU - Carretero, J.
AU - Cawthon, R.
AU - Costanzi, M.
AU - da Costa, L. N.
AU - Pereira, M. E.S.
AU - Desai, S.
AU - Diehl, H. T.
AU - Dietrich, J. P.
AU - Doel, P.
AU - Everett, S.
AU - Ferrero, I.
AU - Fosalba, P.
AU - Frieman, J.
AU - García-Bellido, J.
AU - Gerdes, D. W.
AU - Giannantonio, T.
AU - Krause, E.
N1 - Funding Information: Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) including ERC grant agreements 240672, 291329, and 306478. We acknowledge support from the Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (INCT) do e-Universo (CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). Funding Information: This manuscript has been authored by Fermi Research Alliance, LLC under contract no. DE-AC02-07CH11359 with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics. Funding Information: The DES data management system is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171. The DES participants from Spanish institutions are partially supported by MICINN under grants ESP2017-89838, PGC2018-094773, PGC2018-102021, SEV-2016-0588, SEV-2016-0597, and MDM-2015-0509, some of which include ERDF funds from the European Union. IFAE is partially funded by the CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya. Research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Funding Information: Funding for the DES Projects has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Ministry of Science and Education of Spain, the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom, the Higher Education Funding Council for England, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago, the Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State University, the Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas A&M University, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos, Fundac¸ão Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and the Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovac¸ão, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and the Collaborating Institutions in the DES. Funding Information: This paper has gone through internal review by the DES collaboration. The reviewers were Alex Alarcon, Andresa Compos, and Youngsoo Park. The authors would like to thank Masahiro Takada for fruitful discussions at early stages of the project, and Vivian Miranda and Scott Dodelson for useful comments and discussions. The authors would like to kindly thank the anonymous referee for their comments which helped us improve this paper. Funding for the DES Projects has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Ministry of Science and Education of Spain, the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom, the Higher Education Funding Council for England, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago, the Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State University, the Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas A&M University, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos, Funda??o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo ? Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico and the Minist?rio da Ci?ncia, Tecnologia e Inova??o, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and the Collaborating Institutions in the DES. The Collaborating Institutions are Argonne National Laboratory, the University of California at Santa Cruz, the University of Cambridge, Centro de Investigaciones Energ?ticas, Medioambientales y Tecnol?gicas-Madrid, the University of Chicago, University College London, the DES-Brazil Consortium, the University of Edinburgh, the Eidgen?ssische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Z?rich, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Institut de Ci?ncies de l'Espai (IEEC/CSIC), the Institut de F?sica d'Altes Energies, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the Ludwig-Maximilians Universit?t M?nchen and the associated Excellence Cluster Universe, the University of Michigan, NFS's NOIRLab, the University of Nottingham, The Ohio State University, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Portsmouth, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, the University of Sussex, Texas A&M University, and the OzDES Membership Consortium. Based, in part, on observations at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory at NSF's NOIRLab (NOIRLab Prop. ID 2012B-0001; PI: J. Frieman), which is managed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. The DES data management system is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171. The DES participants from Spanish institutions are partially supported by MICINN under grants ESP2017-89838, PGC2018-094773, PGC2018-102021, SEV-2016-0588, SEV-2016-0597, and MDM-2015-0509, some of which include ERDF funds from the European Union. IFAE is partially funded by the CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya. Research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) including ERC grant agreements 240672, 291329, and 306478. We acknowledge support from the Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ci?ncia e Tecnologia (INCT) do e-Universo (CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). This manuscript has been authored by Fermi Research Alliance, LLC under contract no. DE-AC02-07CH11359 with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics. Funding Information: Based, in part, on observations at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory at NSF’s NOIRLab (NOIRLab Prop. ID 2012B-0001; PI: J. Frieman), which is managed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society
PY - 2021/5/1
Y1 - 2021/5/1
N2 - Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.
AB - Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.
KW - Dark energy
KW - Gravitational lensing: weak
KW - Large-scale structure of Universe
KW - Methods: statistical
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85116919060&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85116919060&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/mnras/stab526
DO - 10.1093/mnras/stab526
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85116919060
VL - 503
SP - 2688
EP - 2705
JO - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
JF - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
SN - 0035-8711
IS - 2
ER -