Competition for university enrollments: The Repercussions of changing U.S. age composition, 1978 to 2001

The changing age composition of the U.S. population portends renewed enrollment pressures on colleges and universities during the 1990s. This article explores the geographic dimensions of the continued passage of the "baby bust" generation through the prime college-going age. It analyzes trends at the state level in actual and projected numbers of high school graduates. It then models the interstate "state" that takes place in college-bound high school graduates using a simple, constant transition probability assumption and a base-period pattern of interstate student flows. While the focus is national, Arizona serves as the example for a single state.