@article{3d18622c0cdb4563b0ae73e15cbaeb09,
title = "Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species{\textquoteright} distributions",
abstract = "Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species{\textquoteright} range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species{\textquoteright} distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.",
keywords = "climate, competition, complex systems, demography, disturbances, forest inventory, integral projection model, range limits, scale, species distributions",
author = "Schultz, {Emily L.} and Lisa H{\"u}lsmann and Pillet, {Michiel D.} and Florian Hartig and Breshears, {David D.} and Sydne Record and Shaw, {John D.} and DeRose, {R. Justin} and Zuidema, {Pieter A.} and Evans, {Margaret E.K.}",
note = "Funding Information: We are grateful to a number of deeply knowledgeable ecologists for sharing their insights into the forces shaping the geographic distributions of trees in western North America, including T. W. Swetnam, A. M. Lynch, D. E. Goldberg, J. L. Betancourt, E. Q. Margolis, K. L. Cole, and C. D. Allen. Further, this research would not have been possible without the support of the U. S. National Science Foundation (under awards DBI-1632706 and DBI-1802893) and the University of Arizona College of Science (to MEKE and ELS). DDB was supported by NSF DEB 1824796 and USGS SW Climate Adaptation Science Center Award G20AC00257. LH and FH received funding from the Bavarian Ministry of Science and the Arts in the context of the Bavarian Climate Research Network (bayklif). MEKE dedicates this paper to Eric S. Menges, mentor to a generation of plant demographers. This work was produced in part by a U.S. government employee as part of official duties, and is therefore not subject to copyright. Funding Information: We are grateful to a number of deeply knowledgeable ecologists for sharing their insights into the forces shaping the geographic distributions of trees in western North America, including T. W. Swetnam, A. M. Lynch, D. E. Goldberg, J. L. Betancourt, E. Q. Margolis, K. L. Cole, and C. D. Allen. Further, this research would not have been possible without the support of the U. S. National Science Foundation (under awards DBI‐1632706 and DBI‐1802893) and the University of Arizona College of Science (to MEKE and ELS). DDB was supported by NSF DEB 1824796 and USGS SW Climate Adaptation Science Center Award G20AC00257. LH and FH received funding from the Bavarian Ministry of Science and the Arts in the context of the Bavarian Climate Research Network (bayklif). MEKE dedicates this paper to Eric S. Menges, mentor to a generation of plant demographers. This work was produced in part by a U.S. government employee as part of official duties, and is therefore not subject to copyright. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.",
year = "2022",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1111/ele.13902",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "25",
pages = "38--51",
journal = "Ecology letters",
issn = "1461-023X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "1",
}