Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-West: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections

Aleix Serrat-Capdevila; Juan B. Valdes; Francina Dominguez; Seshadri Rajagopal

Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-West: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections

Aleix Serrat-Capdevila
, Juan B. Valdes
, Francina Dominguez
, Seshadri Rajagopal

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

Abstract

The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	Water Management and Climate Change
Subtitle of host publication	Dealing with Uncertainties
Publisher	Taylor and Francis Inc.
Pages	32-51
Number of pages	20
ISBN (Electronic)	9781317611264
ISBN (Print)	9781138809161
State	Published - Apr 14 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
General Business, Management and Accounting

Cite this

Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-West: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections. / Serrat-Capdevila, Aleix; Valdes, Juan B.; Dominguez, Francina et al.
Water Management and Climate Change: Dealing with Uncertainties. Taylor and Francis Inc., 2016. p. 32-51.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

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title = "Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-West: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections",

abstract = "The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.",

author = "Aleix Serrat-Capdevila and Valdes, \{Juan B.\} and Francina Dominguez and Seshadri Rajagopal",

note = "Funding Information: The lead author gratefully acknowledges the International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM-UNESCO) for his funding support. Some of the abcd model codes were adapted from Guillermo Martinez and Hoshin V. Gupta and we thank them for their support. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme{\textquoteright}s (WCRP{\textquoteright}s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP{\textquoteright}s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset, as well as the Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections archive. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2015 Taylor \& Francis. All rights reserved.",

year = "2016",

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day = "14",

language = "English (US)",

isbn = "9781138809161",

pages = "32--51",

booktitle = "Water Management and Climate Change",

publisher = "Taylor and Francis Inc.",

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T2 - A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections

AU - Serrat-Capdevila, Aleix

AU - Valdes, Juan B.

AU - Dominguez, Francina

AU - Rajagopal, Seshadri

N1 - Funding Information: The lead author gratefully acknowledges the International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM-UNESCO) for his funding support. Some of the abcd model codes were adapted from Guillermo Martinez and Hoshin V. Gupta and we thank them for their support. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset, as well as the Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections archive. Publisher Copyright: © 2015 Taylor & Francis. All rights reserved.

PY - 2016/4/14

Y1 - 2016/4/14

N2 - The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.

AB - The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.

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UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84978975439#tab=citedBy

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:84978975439

SN - 9781138809161

SP - 32

EP - 51

BT - Water Management and Climate Change

PB - Taylor and Francis Inc.

ER -

Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-West: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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