Beyond GMENAC — Another Physician Shortage from 2010 to 2030?

Since publication of the 1981 report of the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC),¹ much attention has been focused on the current and future supply of physicians in the United States. The following analysis will suggest that the policy debate over the supply of physicians has been shortsighted and that important demographic, social, and economic shifts between now and the year 2010 could affect the supply of doctors dramatically, resulting in a shortage. The GMENAC report suggested that by the year 2000 there will be 144,700 too many physicians, or a ratio of 247 doctors to every 100,000 persons,.