Bet hedging in desert winter annual plants: Optimal germination strategies in a variable environment

Jennifer R. Gremer, D. Lawrence Venable

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

204 Scopus citations


In bet hedging, organisms sacrifice short-term success to reduce the long-term variance in success. Delayed germination is the classic example of bet hedging, in which a fraction of seeds remain dormant as a hedge against the risk of complete reproductive failure. Here, we investigate the adaptive nature of delayed germination as a bet hedging strategy using long-term demographic data on Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. Using stochastic population models, we estimate fitness as a function of delayed germination and identify evolutionarily stable strategies for 12 abundant species in the community. Results indicate that delayed germination meets the criteria as a bet hedging strategy for all species. Density-dependent models, but not density-independent ones, predicted optimal germination strategies that correspond remarkably well with observed patterns. By incorporating naturally occurring variation in seed and seedling dynamics, our results present a rigorous test of bet hedging theory within the relevant environmental context.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)380-387
Number of pages8
JournalEcology letters
Issue number3
StatePublished - Mar 2014


  • Bet hedging
  • Delayed germination
  • Density dependence
  • Desert annuals
  • Evolutionarily stable strategies
  • Population dynamic models
  • Seed bank

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics


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