Bayesian modeling of multi-state hierarchical systems with multi-level information aggregation

Mingyang Li, Jian Liu, Jing Li, Byoung Uk Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

66 Scopus citations


Reliability modeling of multi-state hierarchical systems is challenging because of the complex system structures and imbalanced reliability information available at different system levels. This paper proposes a Bayesian multi-level information aggregation approach to model the reliability of multi-level hierarchical systems by utilizing all available reliability information throughout the system. Cascading failure dependency among components and/or sub-systems at the same level is explicitly considered. The proposed methodology can significantly improve the accuracy of system-level reliability modeling. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)158-164
Number of pages7
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
StatePublished - Apr 2014


  • Bayesian networks
  • Hierarchical structure
  • Multiple failure states
  • Prior elicitation
  • System reliability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering


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