Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Anthony D. Barnosky; Elizabeth A. Hadly; Jordi Bascompte; Eric L. Berlow; James H. Brown; Mikael Fortelius; Wayne M. Getz; John Harte; Alan Hastings; Pablo A. Marquet; Neo D. Martinez; Arne Mooers; Peter Roopnarine; Geerat Vermeij; John W. Williams; Rosemary Gillespie; Justin Kitzes; Charles Marshall; Nicholas Matzke; David P. Mindell; Eloy Revilla; Adam B. Smith

doi:10.1038/nature11018

Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

Anthony D. Barnosky, Elizabeth A. Hadly, Jordi Bascompte, Eric L. Berlow, James H. Brown, Mikael Fortelius, Wayne M. Getz, John Harte, Alan Hastings, Pablo A. Marquet, Neo D. Martinez, Arne Mooers, Peter Roopnarine, Geerat Vermeij, John W. Williams, Rosemary Gillespie, Justin Kitzes, Charles Marshall, Nicholas Matzke, David P. MindellEloy Revilla, Adam B. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

1382 Scopus citations

Abstract

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale g tipping point highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	52-58
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature
Volume	486
Issue number	7401
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11018
State	Published - Jun 7 2012
Externally published	Yes

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Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., Getz, W. M., Harte, J., Hastings, A., Marquet, P. A., Martinez, N. D., Mooers, A., Roopnarine, P., Vermeij, G., Williams, J. W., Gillespie, R., Kitzes, J., Marshall, C., Matzke, N., ... Smith, A. B. (2012). Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere. Nature, 486(7401), 52-58. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11018

Barnosky, AD, Hadly, EA, Bascompte, J, Berlow, EL, Brown, JH, Fortelius, M, Getz, WM, Harte, J, Hastings, A, Marquet, PA, Martinez, ND, Mooers, A, Roopnarine, P, Vermeij, G, Williams, JW, Gillespie, R, Kitzes, J, Marshall, C, Matzke, N, Mindell, DP, Revilla, E & Smith, AB 2012, 'Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere', Nature, vol. 486, no. 7401, pp. 52-58. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11018

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title = "Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere",

abstract = "Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale g tipping point highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.",

author = "Barnosky, {Anthony D.} and Hadly, {Elizabeth A.} and Jordi Bascompte and Berlow, {Eric L.} and Brown, {James H.} and Mikael Fortelius and Getz, {Wayne M.} and John Harte and Alan Hastings and Marquet, {Pablo A.} and Martinez, {Neo D.} and Arne Mooers and Peter Roopnarine and Geerat Vermeij and Williams, {John W.} and Rosemary Gillespie and Justin Kitzes and Charles Marshall and Nicholas Matzke and Mindell, {David P.} and Eloy Revilla and Smith, {Adam B.}",

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AU - Barnosky, Anthony D.

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AU - Brown, James H.

AU - Fortelius, Mikael

AU - Getz, Wayne M.

AU - Harte, John

AU - Hastings, Alan

AU - Marquet, Pablo A.

AU - Martinez, Neo D.

AU - Mooers, Arne

AU - Roopnarine, Peter

AU - Vermeij, Geerat

AU - Williams, John W.

AU - Gillespie, Rosemary

AU - Kitzes, Justin

AU - Marshall, Charles

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AU - Revilla, Eloy

AU - Smith, Adam B.

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AB - Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale g tipping point highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

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Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere

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