TY - JOUR
T1 - Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology
AU - Evans, M. N.
AU - Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.
AU - Thompson, D. M.
AU - Anchukaitis, K. J.
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank Mark A. Cane, Alexey Kaplan and Malcolm K. Hughes for encouraging the development of this research; Heinz Wanner, PAGES and the 18th INQUA Congress (Bern, 2011) for the opportunity to present these ideas in synthesis; and T. Horscoft and N. Roberts for guidance and editorial suggestions. Two anonymous reviewers made insightful and constructive comments that improved the depth, breadth and clarity of the manuscript. We are grateful to M.B. Blumenthal and M. Bell for the IRI Data Libary and Ingrid software used to make Fig. 2 . MNE and DMT were funded by NOAA/C2D2 grant NA10OAR4310115 ; SETW gratefully acknowledges support from an American Association of University Women Dissertation Fellowship. Work cited in this review was supported by NSF grants 0349356 , 0724802 and 0902715 , NOAA grants NA06OAR4310115 and NA08OAR4310682 , and the University of Arizona's Department of Geosciences and Institute of the Environment .
PY - 2013/9/15
Y1 - 2013/9/15
N2 - A proxy system model may be defined as the complete set of forward and mechanistic processes by which the response of a sensor to environmental forcing is recorded and subsequently observed in a material archive. Proxy system modeling complements and sharpens signal interpretations based solely on statistical analyses and transformations; providesthe basis for observing network optimization, hypothesis testing, and data-model comparisons for uncertainty estimation; and may be incorporated as weak but mechanistically-plausible constraints into paleoclimatic reconstruction algorithms. Following a review illustrating these applications, we recommend future research pathways, including development of intermediate proxy system models for important sensors, archives, and observations; linking proxy system models to climate system models; hypothesis development and evaluation; more realistic multi-archive, multi-observation network design; examination of proxy system behavior under extreme conditions; and generalized modeling of the total uncertainty in paleoclimate reconstructions derived from paleo-observations.
AB - A proxy system model may be defined as the complete set of forward and mechanistic processes by which the response of a sensor to environmental forcing is recorded and subsequently observed in a material archive. Proxy system modeling complements and sharpens signal interpretations based solely on statistical analyses and transformations; providesthe basis for observing network optimization, hypothesis testing, and data-model comparisons for uncertainty estimation; and may be incorporated as weak but mechanistically-plausible constraints into paleoclimatic reconstruction algorithms. Following a review illustrating these applications, we recommend future research pathways, including development of intermediate proxy system models for important sensors, archives, and observations; linking proxy system models to climate system models; hypothesis development and evaluation; more realistic multi-archive, multi-observation network design; examination of proxy system behavior under extreme conditions; and generalized modeling of the total uncertainty in paleoclimate reconstructions derived from paleo-observations.
KW - Data-model comparison
KW - Forward modeling
KW - Hypothesis evaluation
KW - Observational network optimization
KW - Reconstruction
KW - Uncertainty modeling
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U2 - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024
DO - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:84880238714
SN - 0277-3791
VL - 76
SP - 16
EP - 28
JO - Quaternary Science Reviews
JF - Quaternary Science Reviews
ER -