An estimate of systematic error and uncertainty in surface cyclone analysis over the North Pacific Ocean: some forecasting implications

The AVN (aviation run) central pressures are, on average, 2.2 mb higher than the NH values. The AVN initial maps underestimate cyclone intensity at all central pressures values, but the error is biggest (3.9 mb) for deep systems (central pressures ≤980 mb). The absolute displacement error averages 210 km with standard deviation of 200 km. Position errors are largest for weak systems (central pressures ≥1000 mb), averaging 300 km and being more than double the 140 km value for deep lows. The aggregate mean vector displacement of 10 km is negligible. Cyclone positions for the AVN initial maps agree to within 130 km of the NH locations for rapid deepening lows (12 h pressure change ≤-12 mb), the smallest mean displacement error for any category examined. The life cycle of cyclones, as portrayed by the AVN initial charts, is too slow, with the AVN maps underestimating the 12-h deepening rate for rapid deepening lows by 5.4 mb, for all other deepening lows by 1.5 mb, and the 12-h filling rate for all cyclolytic lows by 2.4 millibars. -from Author