TY - JOUR
T1 - Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1-CISM2.1
AU - Muntjewerf, Laura
AU - Sellevold, Raymond
AU - Vizcaino, Miren
AU - Ernani da Silva, Carolina
AU - Petrini, Michele
AU - Thayer-Calder, Katherine
AU - Scherrenberg, Meike D.W.
AU - Bradley, Sarah L.
AU - Katsman, Caroline A.
AU - Fyke, Jeremy
AU - Lipscomb, William H.
AU - Lofverstrom, Marcus
AU - Sacks, William J.
N1 - Funding Information:
L. M., M. P., M. V., and C. E. D. acknowledge funding from the European Research Council (grant ERC‐StG‐678145‐CoupledIceClim). R. S. acknowledges funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) (grant ALWOP.2015.096). The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF). This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer ( doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX ), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank the ISMIP6 steering committee, the ISMIP6 model selection group, and ISMIP6 data set preparation group for their continuous engagement in defining ISMIP6. This is ISMIP6 contribution no. 18.
Funding Information:
L. M., M. P., M. V., and C. E. D. acknowledge funding from the European Research Council (grant ERC-StG-678145-CoupledIceClim). R. S. acknowledges funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) (grant ALWOP.2015.096). The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF). This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at?NCAR. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank the ISMIP6 steering committee, the ISMIP6 model selection group, and ISMIP6 data set preparation group for their continuous engagement in defining ISMIP6. This is ISMIP6 contribution no. 18.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020. The Authors.
PY - 2020/10/1
Y1 - 2020/10/1
N2 - The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) and an advanced energy balance-based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350-year scenario in which atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre-industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 and 8.5 K by years 131–150 and 331–350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm by year 150 and 1,140 mm by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr−1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr−1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre-industrial and is in part explained by the quasi-parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior “plateau.”.
AB - The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) and an advanced energy balance-based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350-year scenario in which atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre-industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 and 8.5 K by years 131–150 and 331–350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm by year 150 and 1,140 mm by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr−1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr−1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre-industrial and is in part explained by the quasi-parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior “plateau.”.
KW - anthropogenic climate change
KW - Greenland ice sheet
KW - sea level rise
KW - surface mass balance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091635093&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85091635093&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2019MS002031
DO - 10.1029/2019MS002031
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85091635093
VL - 12
JO - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
JF - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
SN - 1942-2466
IS - 10
M1 - e2019MS002031
ER -