A risk-risk tradeoff approach for incorporating the public’s risk perceptions into quantitative microbial risk assessment

In public health, risk experts often define acceptable risk targets without community input. We developed a novel method for applying behavioral microeconomics to integrate individuals’ risk preferences into risk assessment. To demonstrate this methodology, we explored a risk-risk tradeoff case scenario: increased asthma risk from increased cleaning and disinfection (C&D) and increased infection risk from decreased C&D for healthcare staff. Utilizing a risk-risk tradeoff (RRTO) framework, two datasets were informed with RRTO survey data describing the risks individuals would accept for one outcome to offset risk in another (i.e., “risk target”). A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was deployed to output “critical concentrations,” viral concentrations on surfaces that yield risk targets for a single contaminated surface touch and a work shift. Critical concentrations were over four orders of magnitude larger for single-touch scenarios. Critical concentrations across risk target datasets were similar. Using the RRTO framework to inform QMRA advances the incorporation of individuals’ risk preferences in risk analyses outside economics.