TY - JOUR
T1 - A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation
AU - Zhu, Feng
AU - Emile-Geay, Julien
AU - Anchukaitis, Kevin J.
AU - Hakim, Gregory J.
AU - Wittenberg, Andrew T.
AU - Morales, Mariano S.
AU - Toohey, Matthew
AU - King, Jonathan
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors acknowledge support from the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (grants NA18OAR4310426 to J.E.G., NA18OAR4310422 to G.J.H., and NA18OAR4310420 to K.J.A.). GJH also acknowledges support from the NSF through grant AGS?1702423. M.S.M. was supported by the National Agency for the Promotion of Science and Technology (PICT 2013-1880 and PICT 2018-03691) and the National Scientific and Technical Research Council of Argentina (PIP CONICET 11220130100584).
Funding Information:
The authors acknowledge support from the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (grants NA18OAR4310426 to J.E.G., NA18OAR4310422 to G.J.H., and NA18OAR4310420 to K.J.A.). GJH also acknowledges support from the NSF through grant AGS–1702423. M.S.M. was supported by the National Agency for the Promotion of Science and Technology (PICT 2013-1880 and PICT 2018-03691) and the National Scientific and Technical Research Council of Argentina (PIP CONICET 11220130100584).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.
AB - The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-28210-1
DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-28210-1
M3 - Article
C2 - 35136047
AN - SCOPUS:85124288374
VL - 13
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
IS - 1
M1 - 747
ER -