@article{d62405cebf544f758140e27b61454790,
title = "A Long View of Southern California Water Supply: Perfect Droughts Revisited",
abstract = "The impact of drought on water resources in arid and semiarid regions can be buffered by water supplies from different source regions. Simultaneous drought in all major source regions — or perfect drought — poses the most serious challenge to water management. We examine perfect droughts relevant to Southern California (SoCal) water resources with instrumental records and tree-ring reconstructions for the Sacramento and Colorado Rivers, and SoCal. Perfect droughts have occurred five times since 1906, lasting two to three years, except for the most recent event, 2012–2015. This number and duration of perfect droughts is not unusual in the context of the past six centuries. The modern period stands out for the relatively even distribution of perfect droughts and lacks the clusters of perfect drought documented in prior centuries. In comparison, perfect droughts of the 12th Century were both longer (up to nine years) and more widespread. Perfect droughts of the 20th and 21st Centuries have occurred under different oceanic/atmospheric patterns, zonal and meridional flow, and ENSO or non-ENSO conditions. Multidecadal coherence across the three regions exists, but it has varied over the past six centuries, resulting in irregular intervals of perfect drought. Although the causes of perfect droughts are not clear, given the long-term natural variability along with projected changes in climate, it is reasonable to expect more frequent and longer perfect droughts in the future.",
keywords = "Southern California, climate, drought, streamflow, tree rings",
author = "Woodhouse, {C. A.} and Meko, {D. M.} and Bigio, {E. R.}",
note = "Funding Information: Support for the research reported in this paper is from the California Department of Water Resources (Agreement number 4600011071). We thank numerous contributors of tree‐ring data, and in particular, Dan Griffin for his updated blue oak chronologies, and Tony Caprio for assistance in updating his network of foxtail pine chronologies. We are grateful for the comments of Jeanine Jones on earlier drafts of this paper and for the helpful comments and suggestions from the associate editor and two anonymous reviewers. Support for the 20th Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) Program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. We also acknowledge Dorian Burnette for his DIA analysis web tool (drought.memphis.edu) that was used for drought area assessment. Funding Information: Support for the research reported in this paper is from the California Department of Water Resources (Agreement number 4600011071). We thank numerous contributors of tree-ring data, and in particular, Dan Griffin for his updated blue oak chronologies, and Tony Caprio for assistance in updating his network of foxtail pine chronologies. We are grateful for the comments of Jeanine Jones on earlier drafts of this paper and for the helpful comments and suggestions from the associate editor and two anonymous reviewers. Support for the 20th Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) Program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. We also acknowledge Dorian Burnette for his DIA analysis web tool (drought.memphis.edu) that was used for drought area assessment. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 American Water Resources Association",
year = "2020",
month = apr,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/1752-1688.12822",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "56",
pages = "212--229",
journal = "Journal of the American Water Resources Association",
issn = "1093-474X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "2",
}